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Interview with Steve Tighe - What is strategic foresight?
Steve Tighe is one of Australia’s most compelling and influential speakers on strategic planning and foresight, and is a leading advisor to businesses on strategy, innovation and the future. He is the former Foresight Manager at Foster’s, has a Masters in Strategic Foresight from Swinburne University, and has completed the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Oxford University.Steve recently addressed GWS customers at an invitation-only event in Sydney and took some time to explain his thoughts on strategic planning with WorkPlace Now.
Tell us a little bit about strategic foresight.
Strategic foresight literally means strategy based on the future. It’s an approach to planning and innovation that addresses the two major concerns of every business. Firstly, how might the future be different? And, secondly, what are our strategic options to succeed in these futures? Strategic foresight puts the future first, recognizing that it’s only after understanding the future attitudes, behaviors and needs of society that you can successfully plan and innovate for the future.
Foresight focuses on improving your perception of the future to improve the quality of your planning and innovation decisions today. Most organizations tend to think explicitly about their vision and their subsequent plan for action. Yet, the most important component of the planning process - the perceived future environment - is also the most overlooked! And this is why planning and innovation fails. Because organizations get the future wrong!
Can you give an example from business?
Strategic foresight literally means strategy based on the future. It’s an approach to planning and innovation that addresses the two major concerns of every business. Firstly, how might the future be different? And, secondly, what are our strategic options to succeed in these futures? Strategic foresight puts the future first, recognizing that it’s only after understanding the future attitudes, behaviors and needs of society that you can successfully plan and innovate for the future.
Foresight focuses on improving your perception of the future to improve the quality of your planning and innovation decisions today. Most organizations tend to think explicitly about their vision and their subsequent plan for action. Yet, the most important component of the planning process - the perceived future environment - is also the most overlooked! And this is why planning and innovation fails. Because organizations get the future wrong!
Can you give an example from business?
As an example consider the recent controversy in Australia over live cattle exports to Indonesia. No doubt the leading industry body subscribed to all the trends data they felt necessary to keep their members informed. And no doubt these information sources forecast long term demand growth for Australian beef in Indonesia. But where was the foresight regarding future disruption?
In June 2011, the Australian television show, 4 Corners, exposed footage of exported cows being mistreated in Indonesian abattoirs, causing an unprecedented level of public outrage and leading to the suspension of live cattle exports to Indonesia. As a result, the industry was severely disrupted. And all previous forecasts that had no doubt been based on the persistence of existing trends were rendered useless. Strategic foresight is about spotting potential disruptors and turning them into opportunities.
How have consumer habits changed over time?
The rise of materialistic values in Australia and other Western economies has delivered the Age of Want – an age where consumer wants have been satisfied to an unprecedented level. Whereas previously products were replaced when they became physically obsolete, recent economic growth has been fuelled by the consumer’s mental obsolescence – the consumer now sees a need for newness where none physically exists.
The rise of materialistic values in Australia and other Western economies has delivered the Age of Want – an age where consumer wants have been satisfied to an unprecedented level. Whereas previously products were replaced when they became physically obsolete, recent economic growth has been fuelled by the consumer’s mental obsolescence – the consumer now sees a need for newness where none physically exists.
How would people’s values influence future businesses / industry, or, what is the impact of people’s values on the future?
People’s values and perceptions are the most important driver of future social and industry change. Put simply, a mass of changing mindsets can alter the attitudes and behaviors of millions of consumers, causing disruptive shifts across entire markets.
Demand for products and services are an outcome of the lifestyles we lead - how we commute, how we socialize, etc. And our lifestyles in turn reflect our values and perceptions. Take the example of consumption. If you perceive resources to be abundant, then unabated consumption makes sense. But if you view resources as finite and valuable, then a post-materialist perspective and behavior makes sense.
Understanding people’s values and perceptions is the key to anticipating future consumer behavior and is an organization’s most valuable source of industry foresight.
People’s values and perceptions are the most important driver of future social and industry change. Put simply, a mass of changing mindsets can alter the attitudes and behaviors of millions of consumers, causing disruptive shifts across entire markets.
Demand for products and services are an outcome of the lifestyles we lead - how we commute, how we socialize, etc. And our lifestyles in turn reflect our values and perceptions. Take the example of consumption. If you perceive resources to be abundant, then unabated consumption makes sense. But if you view resources as finite and valuable, then a post-materialist perspective and behavior makes sense.
Understanding people’s values and perceptions is the key to anticipating future consumer behavior and is an organization’s most valuable source of industry foresight.
From an Australian context what shifts do you see in people’s values? Or give us some insights into Australia’s evolving values and emerging trends?
Debates about climate change, global warming, and carbon taxes are raising our consciousness of the impact of our lifestyles. As a result, society’s values are evolving from Materialistic to Post Materialistic. A key economic outcome of this shift in values will be the Decline of Want, and in particular a decline in the want for material possessions. Instead, lifestyle experiences will become the new collectible. There are always winners and losers with change. The desire to consume less will be mirrored by a want to experience more, so there are opportunities for companies in the leisure and tourism industries. It’s important to remember that no organization has an automatic right to exist in perpetuity. Instead, future success relies on maintaining or improving your relevance to customers. Uncovering the future wants and needs of your customers is the purpose of strategic foresight.
Debates about climate change, global warming, and carbon taxes are raising our consciousness of the impact of our lifestyles. As a result, society’s values are evolving from Materialistic to Post Materialistic. A key economic outcome of this shift in values will be the Decline of Want, and in particular a decline in the want for material possessions. Instead, lifestyle experiences will become the new collectible. There are always winners and losers with change. The desire to consume less will be mirrored by a want to experience more, so there are opportunities for companies in the leisure and tourism industries. It’s important to remember that no organization has an automatic right to exist in perpetuity. Instead, future success relies on maintaining or improving your relevance to customers. Uncovering the future wants and needs of your customers is the purpose of strategic foresight.
What are effective ways for a business to improve its long-term planning?
1. Make your internal mental models about the future explicit
Your strategies reflect how you perceive your industry’s future. Yet the validity of the assumptions underpinning these perceptions is rarely explored. Any strategic planning that is conducted without a rigorous exploration of your internal perceptions of the future is almost certain to fail.
2. Overcome Industry Myopia
Industry change is driven by changes in broader society, yet organizations are constantly drawn into analyzing their industry to the nth degree. Instead, increase your focus on society’s unfolding shifts in values and perceptions as these will have the most influence on your industry’s future.
3. Extend your planning horizon with scenario planning
The shorter your planning horizon the more prone your company is to disruptive change. However, as your planning horizon extends, so too does the future uncertainty. Scenario planning is the most effective method for dealing with this uncertainty - it is essential to improving your long term strategy.
Scenarios provide your organization with a long-term framework to inform and give consistency to your planning and innovation, as well as a future context that allows you to anticipate, detect and make sense of weak signals before they become trends. Remember, whilst change is inevitable, disruption doesn’t have to be!
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1. Make your internal mental models about the future explicit
Your strategies reflect how you perceive your industry’s future. Yet the validity of the assumptions underpinning these perceptions is rarely explored. Any strategic planning that is conducted without a rigorous exploration of your internal perceptions of the future is almost certain to fail.
2. Overcome Industry Myopia
Industry change is driven by changes in broader society, yet organizations are constantly drawn into analyzing their industry to the nth degree. Instead, increase your focus on society’s unfolding shifts in values and perceptions as these will have the most influence on your industry’s future.
3. Extend your planning horizon with scenario planning
The shorter your planning horizon the more prone your company is to disruptive change. However, as your planning horizon extends, so too does the future uncertainty. Scenario planning is the most effective method for dealing with this uncertainty - it is essential to improving your long term strategy.
Scenarios provide your organization with a long-term framework to inform and give consistency to your planning and innovation, as well as a future context that allows you to anticipate, detect and make sense of weak signals before they become trends. Remember, whilst change is inevitable, disruption doesn’t have to be!
Back to top
Strategic foresight
